NFL playoffs: What We Learned from Chiefs’ win over Bills in AFC Divisional Round (2024)

NFL playoffs: What We Learned from Chiefs’ win over Bills in AFC Divisional Round (1)

Kansas City Chiefs

2023 · 13-6-0

FULL BOX SCORE

  • READ: Wide right again: Bills' playoff hopes extinguished after FG miss
  • READ: Mahomes, Kelce set mark for playoff TDs as combo
  • READ: Mahomes on road win: ‘It’s you versus everybody’

1. Tyler Bass' miss sinks Bills season. The Bills can point to countless errors along the way, but they had a chance to tie the game with less than two minutes remaining when Bass stepped up for a 44-yard field-goal try. It veered violently to the right, and with the miss, Buffalo's season was over. The Chiefs ran out the clock and now will head to their sixth straight AFC Championship Game next Sunday against the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens. Fans rarely get cheated when these teams meet, and tonight was nothing short of another classic in their rivalry. But this one was marred by some wild plays late and by Bass' miss. His two missed FG tries in the Super Wild Card win over the Steelers were almost forgotten about, but they won't be now. The Bills have been in an elimination mindset since falling to 6-6 after a bad loss to the Patriots, and they made an incredible run to this point. Many people believed they -- and not the Chiefs -- were the greatest threat to the Ravens on this side of the ledger, but their mistakes were just too plentiful to overcome in an emotionally grueling game. Bills fans know all about heartache, and this might not top the "13 second" game, but it certainly will sting for a long time.

2. Mecole Hardman's fumble doesn't come back to bite Chiefs. The Chiefs appeared ready to step on the necks of the Bills early in the fourth quarter after they'd been stopped on fourth down on a fake punt from their own 30-yard line. What followed was a 29-yard run by Isiah Pacheco that set up a goal-to-go situation inside the Buffalo 5-yard line, up 27-24 and poised to make it a two-score lead. Instead, Hardman fumbled through the end zone to give the Bills an improbable turnover when they most needed it -- their first true stop of the day, not counting the halftime kneel down. The Chiefs' defense forced a quick three and out for the Bills, but Patrick Mahomes and Co. couldn't run much clock and kicked it back to Buffalo. Everything set up for a Josh Allen-led game-winning drive in Buffalo -- or at least game-tying. The Chiefs made them work for their yards to get into scoring range and forced a try that was just long enough for Bass to miss. That, along with a first-down run, was enough to end Buffalo's season. Had the Bills taken the lead, we might have looked back at that fumble as the turning point -- and a stark reminder of how many times Chiefs receivers cost the team this season. On Sunday, it did not.

3. Bills defense tightened up late but gave too much ground early. The Bills received good pre-game news when cornerbacks Tyron Johnson and Rasul Douglas were active, but they were without linebacker Terrel Bernard, cornerback Christian Benford and safety Taylor Rapp -- not to mention all the other defensive firepower they've lost during the course of the season. It's not a surprise that Buffalo had its hands full with Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Pacheco. But the Chiefs scored on their first five possessions (not counting the halftime kneel down) as the Bills allowed crucial 75-yard TD drives to start the third and fourth quarters and put them behind the eight-ball. Kelce dominated early, and Pacheco had some back-breaking plays against them after halftime. But the Bills also allowed big plays to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Rashee Rice and Clyde Edwards-Helaire and didn't sack Mahomes. The Chiefs almost had as many 20-yard pass plays (five) as Mahomes had incompletions (six). Jordan Poyer's clutch forced fumble right before the goal line set up the Bills' most inspired defensive stretch of the game after it looked like they were cooked. Credit to that. But a Chiefs offense that struggled to move the ball at times this season had far fewer issues Sunday.

4. Chiefs secondary did their job. Kansas City rang up eight plays of 20 yards or longer. The Bills had none. Josh Allen wasn't sacked, but his longest completion in the game was 15 yards. Fifteen! The Bills didn't have Gabe Davis, and they lost Dawson Knox and Khalil Shakir to injuries for parts of the game. But every time they tried to attack downfield, it just didn't happen. Allen was 0 of 4 on passes traveling 20-plus yards downfield, which is especially impressive considering the Chiefs' pass rush was non-existent for long stretches of the game. Stefon Diggs caught three passes for 21 yards and had a 7-yard run, with only one 3-yard catch after halftime. In two games against the Chiefs this season, he had seven catches for 45 yards on a whopping 19 targets. That was a big reason why the Chiefs had defensive success against the Bills, at least on the scoreboard. Things got a little dicey late, and Shakir made three huge catches among his seven grabs, and Dalton Kincaid was starting to lean on the Chiefs a bit. But again, everything was kept in front of them. The Chiefs played a ton of zone coverage with multiple high safeties, and Allen misfired on several passes where it looked like he was trying to get something -- anything -- going downfield.

5. Sean McDermott's fake punt deserves criticism. It appeared that the Bills were ready to pounce on the Chiefs' apparent mistake when they sent only 10 men on the field for Buffalo's fourth-and-5 play at the Bills' 30-yard line in the fourth quarter. It didn't end well. The direct snap went to Damar Hamlin, who caught it at the 25. That meant he needed to run 10 yards for a first. He was stopped short at the 32-yard line. The play didn't directly hurt the Bills because they forced their one turnover of the game at the goal line a few plays later, but the Bills punted the next possession. And besides, if you're going to go for it on fourth-and-5, shouldn't the ball be in Allen's hands? Allen was far from perfect Sunday, but he was giving the Chiefs' defense all kinds of problems as a runner -- both on designed plays and on scrambles. Instead, McDermott tabbed Hamin, and as Disney a storyline as it would have been had the inspirational safety converted it, he's never had an offensive touch in the NFL.

Next Gen stat of the game: Chiefs LG Joe Thuney held Bills NT Ed Oliver without a pressure across 13 head-to-head matchups in the Divisional Round (10 1-on-1 matchups). Thuney has now allowed a 6.3% pressure rate this season, eighth-lowest among left guards (min. 300 pass blocking snaps).

NFL Research: Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce have the most combined TD (16) by any QB-receiver duo in NFL postseason history. The duo passed Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski Sunday with Kecle's two TD receptions.

NFL playoffs: What We Learned from Chiefs’ win over Bills in AFC Divisional Round (2024)

FAQs

What we learned from Kansas City Chiefs 27-24 NFL playoffs victory vs Buffalo Bills? ›

In the end, the Chiefs won thanks to a missed field goal by Buffalo placekicker Tyler Bass — but that's exactly the issue with playing ball-control offense against Kansas City: when you limit the number of times you possess the ball, you put pressure on yourself to walk away with points on every drive.

Why did Buffalo lose to the Chiefs? ›

An early field goal inside the Chiefs' 10-yard line, dropped passes, and an inability to stop the Chiefs' offense all were reasons Buffalo ended up losing to the Kansas City.

How many times have the Chiefs beaten the Bills in the playoffs? ›

The Buffalo Bills are 2-4 versus the Chiefs in the playoffs all-time.

What happens to the team that wins the AFC Championship? ›

The two teams remaining following the wild-card round (first round) and the divisional round (second round) play in the AFC Championship Game, with the winner advancing to the Super Bowl. Initially, the site of the AFC Championship Game was determined on a rotating basis.

Why did the Kansas City Chiefs win? ›

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes completed the game-winning drive on a three-yard toss to receiver Mecole Hardman. Mahomes finished the game with 34 completions on 46 attempts and two touchdowns.

Who's going to the Super Bowl in 2024? ›

Super Bowl 2024 is this Sunday, February 11 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will face Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV—the year Mahomes won his first NFL title. Kickoff for Super Bowl 2024 is at 6:30 PM ET on CBS network.

Why did Chiefs let Brown go? ›

Chiefs' decision to not tag Orlando Brown came down to, I'm told, their desire to lock in a long-term LT this offseason. Tagging Brown doesn't do it. It'd basically guarantee he's free in '24, make it harder to do a deal (bc of the $20M number) now.

Who's better, Bills or Chiefs? ›

Bills–Chiefs rivalry
Next meetingNovember 17, 2024
Statistics
Meetings total55 meetings
All-time seriesBills: 29–25–1
Regular season seriesBills: 27–21–1
9 more rows

Have the Chiefs ever had a losing season? ›

The team has played in 983 total games in a total of 64 seasons, and a winning percentage of . 547. The Chiefs' 14–2 season in 2020 remains their best regular season record to date while their 2–14 records in 2008 and 2012 remain their worst.

What is Patrick Mahomes' record against the Bills? ›

Patrick Mahomes has a 4-3 record in the regular-season and playoffs versus the Bills in his career.

What are the odds of the Chiefs winning against the Bills? ›

ESPN Analytics give the Bills a 56.6% chance to win at home and advance to the AFC Championship. The same model gives the Chiefs a 43.4% chance to take the road win and move to 3-0 against the Bills in their last three playoff meetings.

Has Buffalo ever won a Super Bowl? ›

Twelve current NFL teams have never won a Super Bowl: Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, and Tennessee Titans.

What happens after the AFC divisional game? ›

Once the divisional games have concluded, the two remaining teams will meet in the AFC and NFC Championship games to determine who will be representing each conference at the Super Bowl.

Do players get a bonus for winning AFC Championship? ›

Individual playoff bonuses

Bills quarterback Josh Allen will make $1 million with Buffalo winning the AFC championship game provided he is on the field for at least 60% of the team's offensive plays. He also had to have a minimum of 60% offensive playtime during the regular season, which he easily did.

What team has lost the most AFC championships? ›

Which team has lost the most AFC Championship Games? Along with eight wins, the Steelers also have eight losses in AFC Championship Games, the most of any team.

Has Buffalo ever beat Kansas City? ›

1991–2000: Resurgence of the rivalry

The Bills were limited to only 211 net yards in the game, and had lost five fumbles. The teams would meet again in the 1991 AFC Divisional Round at Rich Stadium, where the Bills would get their revenge on Kansas City. Buffalo led 17–0 at halftime on route to a 37–14 victory.

Are the Chiefs favored to beat the Bills? ›

Buffalo is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs.

Who won Chiefs or Bills 2024 ESPN? ›

Chiefs 27-24 Bills (Jan 21, 2024) Final Score - ESPN.

Who is the underdog between Chiefs and Bills? ›

Bills vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Lines
FavoriteSpreadUnderdog Spread Odds
Bills-2.5100
Jan 18, 2024

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